NewsNation: Gender Gap & NEW American Pulse PA Poll

Byline: American Pulse Staff
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Recently, Dustin Olson, lead pollster at American Pulse, appeared on NewsNation LIVE with anchor Marni Hughes to discuss the evolving Gender Gap in American voting patterns, highlighting a particularly pronounced Gender Gap in new Pennsylvania polling from American Pulse. The conversation highlighted a significant shift in voter sentiment as early voting gets underway in key states. Below, we’ll break down Olson’s insights and findings from the new American Pulse poll in Pennsylvania [Get the Poll Here].

The Gender Divide & Pennsylvania Poll Results:

During the segment, Olson addressed the historical gender gap, noting it has been discussed since the 1980s. However, recent polling data across numerous surveys suggests that the gender divide is shifting in new ways this election cycle. Olson explained:

"So, the gender gap has been around and talked about since the early '80s, and was one of the reasons why Geraldine Ferraro was even picked in the Mondale campaign... What it typically highlights though is Republicans not having as much support among women. But what’s different this year is that even before Kamala Harris was named as a candidate, we began to see erosion in support for Biden among certain demographics, particularly male minority voters."

The new American Pulse Pennsylvania poll underscores this shift, showing Trump leading by a significant margin among men while Harris holds a substantial lead among women:

"In our latest Pennsylvania poll, we found that Trump is leading by about 18 points with men, while Harris is leading by 14.6 points with women. That’s a very pronounced split, and it’s different from the typical pattern where Republicans only struggle with women," Olson noted.

This dual-gender advantage in Pennsylvania is shaping up to be a defining feature of the 2024 election, with each candidate securing different demographics based on key issues.

Gender Trends in Other Swing States:

When Hughes asked about gender trends in other swing states, Olson explained that this pattern of gender allegiance is largely consistent across the Midwest and key battleground states.

"It’s roughly about the same across each of the swing states," Olson stated. "What’s interesting in Pennsylvania is that the gender gap actually benefits Trump. Pollsters typically weight their surveys to about 52% women, which accounts for why the race is so close overall."

This trend underscores Pennsylvania’s unique demographics, where Trump’s advantage with men is slightly offset by the larger proportion of women sampled in the polls.

Key Issues Shaping Voter Preferences:

The American Pulse poll also revealed that voters’ top issues vary by gender, with significant implications for each candidate’s campaign strategy. Olson highlighted the leading concerns:

"On the top issues, the economy and inflation are priorities across the board, followed by immigration and the border," Olson explained. "What we see is that Trump holds a lead on economic issues, immigration, and foreign policy, while Harris has a more pronounced advantage on abortion. The support for each candidate varies significantly by gender on these issues."

In Pennsylvania and other swing states, this alignment on issues could be crucial as voters make decisions based on which candidate aligns more closely with their values and concerns.

Black Voter Demographics and Polling Accuracy:

Hughes also asked about demographic trends among Black voters, specifically male voters, and Harris's outreach efforts to this group. Olson emphasized the importance of capturing accurate data within the Black voter demographic, pointing out the challenge of using online panels, which may not accurately reflect working-class voters.

"It depends on the poll and how well it’s done with representing all demographics within the African American community," Olson noted. "Often, online panels miss parts of the population like the Black working class. However, polls are showing Trump could gain a historic portion of the African American vote, particularly among men, with support estimated between the low teens and low 20s."

This trend, according to Olson, could be a pivotal factor in determining the outcome in Pennsylvania and other swing states.

Conclusion and Next Steps:

In summary, Olson’s recent appearance on NewsNation LIVE provided critical insights into the evolving gender gap and voter priorities in the 2024 election. The conversation underscored the importance of accurate polling, especially in diverse swing states like Pennsylvania. The latest American Pulse poll highlights the unique gender divides and top issues that could shape the election outcome.

As Election Day approaches, American Pulse will continue to monitor and analyze these trends to provide up-to-date insights into the minds of American voters.

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