Fox News: The Battle for the Blue Wall in 2024

Byline: American Pulse Staff
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This past weekend on Fox News Live, American Pulse's lead pollster, Dustin Olson, joined host Eric Shawn and fellow pollster Doug Schoen to discuss polling trends and voter sentiment in the Midwest—particularly in the critical "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The conversation focused on early voting, new American Pulse polling in Pennsylvania [Get the Poll], and what the polling across the Blue Wall states could mean as we approach the 2024 election.

Former President’s Lead on Key Issues in Pennsylvania:

During the segment, Olson shared insights from the latest polling conducted by American Pulse in Pennsylvania, one of the key swing states for the 2024 election. The data clearly shows that Donald Trump holds a significant advantage on the two most important issues for Pennsylvania voters: immigration and inflation.

"Doug is absolutely right about the fundamentals of this election," Olson stated. "In our Pennsylvania swing state survey, we found that on immigration and inflation—the two top issues—Donald Trump has a solid lead on being trusted to handle those issues. He also holds a narrow lead overall, by 1.4%."

While this margin may seem small, it reflects a broader shift in the Blue Wall states, which were instrumental in deciding the outcome of the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Early Voting & Polling in Michigan and Wisconsin:

Olson also highlighted internal polling data from Michigan, where Trump is seeing similar momentum. Early mail-in voting has already begun in Michigan, with in-person voting now in Detroit. This movement is part of a larger trend across the Midwest, a region that remains fiercely competitive.

"The Real Clear Politics average for Wisconsin is also noteworthy," Olson noted during the discussion. "For the first time since Kamala Harris took the lead, Trump now has a 0.1% lead in Wisconsin, which isn't much."

The Importance of Voter Turnout:

While polling shows Trump gaining ground in these Blue Wall states, the ultimate outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout efforts. Olson emphasized the critical role that effective get-out-the-vote campaigns play in these battleground states:

"If pollsters have gotten it right in the last few years and have dialed things in, then we’re looking at an extremely close election that is trending in Trump’s direction. However, really good get-out-the-vote efforts could erase those gains in each of these states and make the difference."

A close race could potentially result in what Olson referred to as a "narrow landslide," where Trump wins the majority of swing states with a close national popular vote.

What This Means for 2024:

Polling data from numerous states suggest that the 2024 election will be an incredibly tight race, with voter turnout likely playing a decisive role. Whether these trends will hold or shift as Election Day approaches is yet to be seen, but it’s clear that the Midwest will once again play a pivotal role in determining the next occupant of the White House.

Dustin Olson thanked Eric Shawn for hosting the discussion and Doug Schoen for his insightful analysis. As we move closer to Election Day, understanding the evolving political dynamics of the Blue Wall states will be key.

Stay tuned for more updates and detailed polling analysis from American Pulse as the election draws near.

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