New Hampshire Presidential Poll:

Survey Reveals Pitfalls & Opportunities for 2024 Hopefuls;
Most Republican Candidates Can Make Debate Stage

Alexandria, V.A. – A new survey released today from American Pulse Research & Polling, a nationally recognized polling organization, offers some revealing insights into voter sentiment in New Hampshire ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election.

The findings paint a vivid portrait of the 2024 electoral landscape in New Hampshire and the strengths and weaknesses of both potential Democratic and Republican candidates.

Methodology Matters

• The survey, which has a Margin of Error of +/3.2% at a 95% Confidence Level, was conducted among 906 general election voters and 895 primary election voters between 07/05/2023 through 07/11/2023.
• Employing their multimodal methodology—including live telephone interviews, text-to-web interviews, interactive voice response, and online panel—American Pulse built upon its 91% Accuracy Rate in 2022 to gather a robust dataset. 

"The results present a rich tapestry of opinions and priorities among New Hampshire voters," said Dustin Olson, Lead Pollster at American Pulse for the New Hampshire survey. "While some trends were expected, others point towards a shifting political landscape with insights for all sides."

Stock Tip: Invest in Podiums

As the campaign unfolds, it appears the Republican National Committee (RNC) may need to bulk order podiums. It seems their only hope for debate stage crowd-control may hinge on the fundraising threshold.

Eight of the twelve Republican candidates meet the RNC's 1% polling threshold required for participation in the official Republican Presidential Debates.

These include:

• Donald Trump (47.5%)
• Ron DeSantis (10.5%)
• Chris Christie (10%)
• Tim Scott (6.9%)
• Vivek Ramaswamy (5.3%)
• Mike Pence (4.8%)
• Nikki Haley (3.3%)
• Doug Burgum (3.3%)

Notably, among those candidates not named Trump and who meet the 1% debate threshold, the average level of support is 6.3%.

Primary Strength, Weak in General

With his 47.5%, Donald Trump continues to enjoy strong primary support, but it’s not all roses for the former president as he continues to be an energizing force for Democrats and Independents. Trump trails Joe Biden among Independents by 25 points.

Possible Rising Stars

Despite Trump's Primary strength, other Republicans, such as Tim Scott, may be viable alternatives in a General Election.

"Our polling data shows that Tim Scott, although not as well known as Trump, receives almost the same percentage of votes in a head-to-head matchup with Biden," said Olson. “What’s different is that support for Biden drops in a head-to-head matchup with Scott.”

Both Tim Scott and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy have noticeably built favorability among likely Republican primary voters:

• Scott has a +44.6% Fav/Unfav Ratio
• Ramaswamy has a +40.2% Fav/Unfav Ratio

Olson noted that such ratios often predict future movements in ballot support. 

Weighed Down & Stalling Out

Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' early momentum appears to be waning, with only 10.5% of likely Republican primary voters selecting him as their top choice, losing support from other earlier surveys.

While making some gains, Chris Christie faces an uphill battle, having remarkably high unfavorables–the highest for any Republican candidate by a factor of 10X.

Unified Democrat Front

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden enjoys a generally unified front from Democrats in both Primary and General Election matchups.

"Despite concerns about Biden’s age and competency, he maintains near-unified support among Democrats," said Olson.

However, this does not translate into enthusiastic support for a Biden re-election campaign.

As a Merrimack County “Progressive” Male with a Postgraduate Degree put it, "Who else can win?"

Most Prefer ‘NO’ Biden to Joe Biden

Among all voters, a mere 38.1% believe Biden should run in 2024. This figure may even be somewhat inflated, as a third of the Republicans advocating his run are doing so in hopes of his "loss". Alarmingly, about a quarter of Democrats also propose that Biden yield his position.

When given the opportunity to freely respond to open-ended questions on the topic, voters of all stripes frequently expressed concerns about Biden’s age, health, mental acuity, or overall competency.

One Sullivan County “Liberal” Male with a High School Diploma who would vote for Biden/Democrat in general election matchups shared his misgivings, "Age, I would rather have Newsom."

A Hillsborough County “Conservative” Male with a Postgraduate Degree, who chose Republicans in general election matchups, said Biden is, "Too old, but more importantly, he doesn’t have it mentally."

“If it weren’t for Double-Standards, the Legal System wouldn’t have any”

On issues and priorities, the legal and justice system also loom large in voters' minds, with a staggering 77.7% agreeing that there is a “double-standard” in the nation's legal and justice system.

This sentiment doesn't appear to affect views on law enforcement, with 86.7% expressing a favorable view of local police and law enforcement generally.

Granite Staters have TV Ads in their Future

In terms of media consumption, TV remains the dominant source of news, with 43.7% of respondents indicating this preference.

Online sources, including live streams, podcasts, and social media, account for the next highest at a combined 25%. Interestingly, Republicans and Independents are 2.5 times more likely to rely on online shows, live streams, and podcasts for news than Democrats. 

These insights offer a glimpse into the complex views and sentiments of New Hampshire voters, shaping a clearer picture of the challenges and opportunities candidates face in the 2024 presidential race.

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